Nov 11, 2024 Story by: Editor
This article was updated on February 20, 2024 to include more data on Black voters in the 2024 election.
When Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee in August, she aimed to be the first woman, first Indian American, and second African American to win the White House. Her campaign targeted Black voters, hoping to reverse a drift away from the Democratic Party, often with support from former President Barack Obama.
However, as election results unfolded, a surprising trend emerged: it was Donald Trump, not Harris, who gained ground among Black voters compared to 2020.
The efforts to boost support among Black voters seemed to have some success. He won a larger share of Black voters than he did in 2020, particularly among young Black men, according to AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of more than 120,000 voters in the 2024 election.
Overall, about 16% of Black voters supported Trump in November, while about 8 in 10 voted for Democrat Kamala Harris. But that represented an improvement for Trump from 2020, when only 8% of Black voters backed him and about 9 in 10 went for Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump’s Black Voter Support in 2024
Historically, Black voters have largely supported the Democratic Party, and this trend mostly held in 2024. Harris reportedly won 80% of the Black vote, per an exit poll by the Associated Press. This, however, marked a 10-point drop from 2020 when Joe Biden secured about 90% of Black votes. Trump saw an increase, winning 20% of the Black vote—up from 13% in 2020 and 8% in 2016, the highest Black voter support for a Republican since George W. Bush.
Trump’s Performance in Swing States
In critical swing states, Trump’s support among Black voters increased:
- Georgia: Trump gained 12% of Black votes, a 1-point increase from 2020.
- 2024: Democrats 86%, Republicans 12%
- 2020: Democrats 88%, Republicans 11%
- Michigan: Trump’s support rose by 2 points amid anti-Democrat sentiment linked to the Israel-Gaza conflict.
- 2024: Democrats 90%, Republicans 9%
- 2020: Democrats 92%, Republicans 7%
- North Carolina: One of the most significant shifts occurred here, with a 5-point swing to Republicans.
- 2024: Democrats 87%, Republicans 12%
- 2020: Democrats 92%, Republicans 7%
- Pennsylvania: A key win for Trump, with a 3-point increase.
- 2024: Democrats 89%, Republicans 10%
- 2020: Democrats 92%, Republicans 7%
- Wisconsin: Black voters showed a 13-point swing toward Trump, influenced by concerns about poverty, wages, and healthcare.
- 2024: Democrats 77%, Republicans 21%
- 2020: Democrats 92%, Republicans 8%
- Nevada: The only swing state where Harris gained ground, seeing a slight increase in Black voter support.
- 2024: Democrats 82%, Republicans 17%
- 2020: Democrats 80%, Republicans 18%
Was This Shift Unexpected?
Not entirely. A 2023 Gallup poll showed a decline in Black adults identifying as Democrats, dropping from 77% in 2020 to 66%. Analysts note that younger Black voters, unlike previous generations, do not have the same attachment to the civil rights movement, a cornerstone of Democratic loyalty.
“I think a certain generation of Black voters don’t have the direct experience with the civil rights movement or the knowledge of those things because to them that’s not memory—it’s history,” explained Adolphus Belk, a political scientist at Winthrop University in South Carolina. “They’re coming in without an understanding of these historical contours and turns, limitations, opportunities.”
Belk further noted that Black voters felt underappreciated by the Democratic Party despite their long-standing loyalty.
Did Democrats Anticipate This?
With Harris as the nominee, Democrats increased efforts to reach Black voters, heavily relying on support from Barack Obama. Harris even introduced an “opportunity agenda for Black men,” promising initiatives like $1 million in small business loans.
However, some found this approach ineffective. At a community event in Pittsburgh, Obama criticized Black men for not fully supporting Harris. “I’m speaking to men directly – part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that,” he said. His remarks drew criticism, with author Ta-Nehisi Coates telling Al Jazeera, “When you are trying to get a group of people to support you, you appeal to them. You don’t chide them, humiliate them, and vent your anger at them.”
Trump’s Strategy
Trump’s approach echoed the Democratic Party’s mid-20th-century tactics, aiming to attract disillusioned Black voters. He argued that Black Americans prospered economically under his administration and claimed his multiple indictments resonated with Black voters who feel mistreated by the criminal justice system.
“And then I got indicted a second time and a third time and a fourth time. And a lot of people said that that’s why the Black people like me because they have been hurt so badly and discriminated against,” Trump stated at a Black Conservative Federation event in South Carolina. “They actually viewed me as being discriminated against.”
