African migration – key tendencies and political dilemmas

Oct 6, 2024 Story by: Editor

Migration plays a vital role in the livelihoods of many communities across Africa. Individuals migrate for various reasons, including providing for their families, pursuing education, seeking security, or aiming for a better future. The majority of migration occurs within national borders, often from rural areas and smaller towns to larger urban centers. International migration is less common, primarily focused on neighboring countries, while migration toward Europe is relatively limited. Out of Africa's estimated 1.4 billion inhabitants, around 43 million are international migrants , with most residing within their home countries, mainly in adjacent regions. Europe, North America, and Asia are the primary continents where African migrants settle outside the continent.

Both regular and irregular migration are significant issues on the political agendas of Denmark and Europe, leading to complex dilemmas. These concerns are deeply intertwined with ongoing structural transformations, such as shifts in geopolitics, trade dynamics, conflicts, demographic changes, and climate change, which often exacerbate global and regional inequalities. Below, three critical trends and the associated dilemmas are highlighted, focusing on potential areas for political collaboration or contention from Danish (and broader European) and African viewpoints.

THREE KEY TENDENCIES

Circular Labour Migration

In many African contexts, migration and development are closely linked due to substantial remittances, skills transfer, and investments from the diaspora. However, many African migrants do not intend to settle permanently in Europe or elsewhere; instead, they aspire to return to their home countries once conditions improve. Circular migration—characterized by returning home or moving onward, and potentially re-migrating—is therefore a common practice in various contexts. This trend presents opportunities for collaboration between Africa and Europe. With an anticipated decline in the labor force and existing shortages in sectors like technology, nursing, and agriculture, the demand for migrant labor in Europe is expected to rise. Given demographic shifts, this trend is likely to become more pronounced, as Europe faces low birth rates and an aging population, while Africa's population continues to grow, primarily comprising young people. Promoting and facilitating regular and circular migration may thus be a shared political goal, particularly as un- and underemployment remains a challenge for many young Africans.

Climate Change

Increasing temperatures and extreme weather events are increasingly influencing displacement and forced immobility. However, alarmist projections that predict millions of African migrants heading to Europe due to climate change lack support from research. Most climate-related migration is observed within countries, particularly to nearby regions and urban areas. The impacts of climate change, including food insecurity, disproportionately affect the impoverished in developing nations. Forced immobility, where individuals are unable to move despite their needs or desires, is another critical issue that often goes unrecognized.

Development agencies are gradually acknowledging the adaptive role migration can play. However, determining what constitutes successful adaptation, under which conditions, and for whom remains a complex challenge. It's also difficult to establish the extent to which migration is driven by climate change, especially concerning slow-onset environmental changes with gradually rising temperatures. Rather, climate change acts as a compounding factor that may intensify existing mobility patterns. Whether this will evolve if large regions of Africa become uninhabitable and uncultivable remains uncertain.

Border Control and Restrictive Migration Regimes

Finally, border control and the regulation of migration from third countries have been political concerns in Europe since the establishment of the Schengen area , gaining even more attention since 2015. Domestic integration challenges have fueled fears that migration poses a security threat. Consequently, migration from Africa and other third countries has become securitized, leading to restrictive immigration and asylum legislation and enhanced border controls at national and EU levels. A significant trend is the outsourcing and externalization of migration control to African countries of origin and transit, with the repatriation of rejected asylum seekers and irregular migrants being a consistent priority. This situation has rendered access to safe and legal migration to Europe, including for protection, unattainable for many African nationals. As a result, a minority resorts to irregular migration methods, which are often perilous and costly, leading to human rights violations such as extortion, kidnapping, torture, and loss of lives in the Sahara Desert or Mediterranean Sea. The lack of safe and legal migration pathways is a public and political concern in sending and transit countries, perceived as unjust and unsustainable.

DILEMMAS AND STRATEGIC CONCERNS

As a significant and often symbolic issue in both Danish and African political contexts, how Denmark (and other European countries) addresses migration becomes part of a broader interpretative framework for African leaders. This complexity makes engaging with migration sensitive, with potential spillover effects that could hinder progress on other political matters.

Establishing legal pathways for circular migration is a potentially shared political priority, relating to the aim of safe, orderly, and regular migration as outlined in the Global Migration Compact . Ideally, this arrangement would benefit both migrants and destination countries. However, practical challenges arise. With increasing competition for skilled labor, brain drain poses a potential issue, as the emigration of professionals like doctors, nurses, and engineers may deplete countries of necessary skills and exacerbate inequalities in sectors like healthcare, thereby perpetuating global and local disparities. Supporting education and training in targeted sectors, particularly in technology and healthcare, is crucial, especially considering Africa's youthful and growing population.

Additionally, creating legal migration pathways must address various concerns to avoid establishing a new (or perpetuating an existing) migrant labor precariat. Ensuring appropriate employment and salary conditions, along with efficient skills recognition, is essential for allowing migrants to work in their areas of expertise and maintain or enhance their competencies rather than face de-skilling. This can be further bolstered by long-term, flexible work permits that enable travel back and forth, rather than short-term, restrictive migratory conditions that increase the risk of irregularity and exploitation upon expiration. Furthermore, the process for obtaining work permits should be straightforward and affordable to prevent migrants and their families from incurring debt or becoming dependent on brokers.

Migration management and readmission agreements, which involve African nations accepting rejected asylum seekers and migrants, are, as noted earlier, a priority for Danish and EU political leaders. Conditionality—linking acceptance of these agreements to potential trade deals, development aid, or legal migration pathways—is a commonly employed political strategy to advance this agenda. This topic is contentious in many African nations, where leaders, like their counterparts in Denmark, must navigate domestic expectations and issues. While negotiations may include funding for socioeconomic reintegration support mechanisms for returned migrants, such initiatives tend to be short-term and often fail to provide sustainable solutions. Additionally, they are typically of relatively low political priority. As a result, they may not hold as much weight compared to other aspects of migration politics, where practices such as deportations of Africans and stringent migration regulations are viewed as politically unjust and degrading.

The long-term consequences of migration policies necessitate careful consideration as European and African leaders formulate agreements on regulating, deterring, and controlling migration. In these negotiations, migrants may become a diplomatic bargaining chip leveraged by both sides. For instance, African nations may enhance border control in exchange for military or coast guard support or other incentives. However, these agreements carry risks, as governments might threaten to ease border control, using Europe's anxiety over uncontrolled migration as a political tool or as a means of signaling shifting geopolitical alliances, as seen in Niger's case. Moreover, the externalization of border control through military and police support may inadvertently empower anti-democratic forces, which could backfire in the long term and negatively affect Danish and European interests. This presents a significant dilemma amid a changing geopolitical landscape and rising anti-Western sentiments.

Rapid urbanization amid climate change and population growth represents one of the most significant migration-related challenges for African policymakers, leading to increased pressures on infrastructure, housing, energy supply, and various aspects of urban planning. Additionally, rural-to-urban migration is viewed as a potential social and economic issue in some African countries. Since international migration often follows internal movements to larger cities, this may have indirect but lasting effects on broader migration policy. A strategic concern that crosses various programming sectors involves supporting urban transformations related to adaptation and the green transition, ensuring that cities and urban areas are better equipped to manage migration and population growth, especially concerning climate change.

Recognizing migrants as valuable resources constitutes another critical strategic concern. In many African nations, remittances significantly contribute to poverty alleviation for families and serve as lifelines during crises such as drought, conflict, and instability. Furthermore, migrant involvement in development and humanitarian efforts at a collective level is crucial, particularly in conflict-affected regions. Such practices may place considerable expectations and pressures on migrants. Additionally, many African political and economic elites possess migrant backgrounds and maintain close ties with their families, constituencies, or businesses abroad, often engaging in political lobbying, diaspora investment, development, and diplomacy. Collaborating with and consulting diaspora groups is a small but meaningful step that could yield long-term positive outcomes in an increasingly interconnected world. Source: DIIS