In this election, demographics did not determine how people voted

Nov 28, 2024 Story by: Editor

The 2024 presidential election provided clear evidence that demography alone does not dictate electoral outcomes. Despite long-held Democratic expectations that a diversifying America would cement their political dominance, President-elect Trump succeeded in winning over key voter groups that Democrats had considered reliable. The results underscored that voter identity is less significant than widespread dissatisfaction with the incumbent party's handling of issues like economic challenges and immigration.

Key Demographic Shifts in Swing States

Exit polls highlighted pronounced demographic trends in pivotal swing states, with each group playing varying roles in Trump's victory:

Younger Voters : Democrats lost ground among voters under 30 in nearly every swing state, except Georgia, where Harris slightly improved on Biden's performance, and Arizona, where support remained steady. The most significant declines occurred in the Midwest's former Blue Wall states, with double-digit shifts away from Democrats.

Latino Voters : Latinos exhibited a dramatic rightward shift, continuing a trend from previous elections. In states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan, Latino support for Democrats fell by over 20 points.

Black Voters : While Democrats maintained the majority of Black voter support, the margins declined compared to previous elections. Wisconsin stood out for a steep drop in Black voter backing for Democrats.

White Voters : White voters, who made up a larger share of the electorate, overwhelmingly backed Trump. While their overall margin remained unchanged, their increased presence in key states boosted Trump's performance.

Older Voters : Seniors, once considered a reliable Republican bloc, showed signs of shifting away from Trump in states like Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina, signaling a broader political realignment by age.

State-by-State Analysis

Georgia : Trump's gains with white voters, Latinos, and men, alongside reduced Democratic margins with voters over 45, secured his win. Harris’s improvement among younger voters was insufficient to offset these losses.