Total 2024 election spending projected to exceed previous record

Nov 11, 2024 Story by: Editor

Federal Election Spending in 2024 Set to Break Records, OpenSecrets Reports

With Election Day in the rearview mirror, OpenSecrets forecasts that the 2024 federal election cycle is set to become the most expensive ever, with anticipated spending of at least $15.9 billion . This figure surpasses the previous record of $15.1 billion set during the 2020 cycle. Outside groups, primarily super PACs, have already spent $2.6 billion, outpacing any previous cycle, and total outside spending is expected to exceed $5 billion if current trends continue.

Inflation Adjustments Impact Record-Breaking Projections

Although the 2024 cycle appears record-breaking in nominal terms, inflation-adjusted comparisons tell a different story. OpenSecrets estimates that the inflation-adjusted fundraising total for 2020 would equal $18.3 billion today.

Image Source: Data Wrapper

The unprecedented self-funding seen during the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, including Michael Bloomberg's $1 billion investment, was a significant factor contributing to the earlier record. This cycle, neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump is expected to match that level of spending.

Fundraising Trends in the 2024 Presidential Race

Harris and the Democratic Party have gained momentum, projected to have raised $1 billion from July through September, according to the Harris campaign. Meanwhile, Trump and the Republican Party raised $430 million over the same period. By the end of August, Harris’s campaign reported $404 million in cash on hand, compared to Trump’s $283 million at the end of September .

OpenSecrets analysis indicates that spending between Oct. 1 and Nov. 23 could exceed another $500 million. In 2020, the combined spending by general election campaigns, the RNC, and the DNC during this period totaled over $1.1 billion.

Outside Spending Favors Republicans

Outside spending has surged in 2024, totaling $2.6 billion as of early October, a significant increase from the same point in 2020. Conservative groups are currently outspending liberal ones, reversing the 2020 trend. The largest expenditures come from super PACs linked to presidential candidates, including Make America Great Again Inc. , which has spent over $239 million supporting Trump, and Future Forward, with $212 million backing Democratic candidates.

Notably, cryptocurrency-linked super PAC Fairshake has spent $123 million supporting both parties, an unusual practice. Many groups rely on dark money sources to obscure their donors. For instance, Future Forward USA Action, a top donor to Future Forward, is classified as a partially disclosing organization.

Congressional Races Attract Record Spending

While presidential races dominate headlines, congressional contests have also seen unprecedented spending. Individual donation limits increased from $2,800 in 2020 to $3,300 in 2024, contributing to the rise. Democrats have raised significantly more for Senate races, outspending Republicans by over $150 million. However, Republicans currently lead in House spending, though this trend may reverse in the coming months as Democrats collectively report higher cash reserves.

Major Donors Dominate Fundraising

This election cycle has seen conservative donors leading contributions, with the top five all supporting Republican causes. The top 10 individual donors have provided $599 million—7% of all funds raised. By contrast, small donors giving under $200 make up only 16% of total fundraising.

Democrats continue to rely more heavily on small donors, with 28% of their funding from contributions under $200, compared to 19% for Republicans.

This analysis underscores the growing financial arms race in U.S. elections, with record-breaking expenditures and rising influence from outside groups shaping the 2024 cycle. Source: The Fulcrum