Oct 19, 2024 Story by: Editor
In 1999, there were 164 House districts where the election outcomes were within a five-point margin of the national popular vote. Currently, that number has decreased to 82, largely due to gerrymandering. This trend could heavily influence which party controls the House of Representatives by 2025.
The Cook Political Report categorizes “swing districts” as those where results fall within five points of the national vote. For example, if the national vote is evenly split, a swing district would have a five-point margin favoring either party. Over the past 25 years, the total count of competitive districts has been halved, with most now concentrated in just two states: New York and California.
Jonathan Cervas, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University and redistricting expert, noted that redistricting — a process conducted every decade when states redraw congressional districts — has long contributed to the decline in competitive House races. He explains that redistricting has become a “primary method” for securing party advantages because voters are “not very persuadable.” Since the 2010s, partisan redistricting, or gerrymandering, has led to a decline in competitive races. “It’s much easier for a political party to change district lines to enhance their ability to win than it is to change voters’ minds,” Cervas added.
Following the 2010 Census, Republicans strategically targeted state legislatures, which are responsible for drawing district boundaries in most states. This strategy allowed them to secure redistricting powers, resulting in partisan gerrymanders in states such as Texas and Utah. During the 2020s, Democrats also pursued partisan maps in states like New York and Illinois. However, Democrats faced obstacles in New York and California, where independent redistricting commissions limit partisan influence.
In New York, lawmakers tried bypassing the commission to establish a Democrat-favorable map, but the courts struck down the gerrymander, ultimately implementing neutral maps drafted by Cervas. This led to today’s situation: fewer competitive districts, many of which are concentrated in New York and California. While many advocates view eliminating gerrymandering positively, Democrats may face disadvantages since Republican-led states have retained partisan redistricting. A Brennan Center analysis indicates that post-2020 Census redistricting gives Republicans an advantage of about 16 House seats due to gerrymandering alone.
Michael Li, senior counsel for democracy at the Brennan Center, describes this as a “tale of two countries” regarding gerrymandering. “There are places where maps are fair and have improved, and there are places where maps are deeply manipulated,” Li explained. “If you watch the news, almost everything is about these seven battleground states, but in terms of toss-up districts, only a third are in these swing states.”
Republicans gained significant redistricting advantages in Texas and Florida post-2020, potentially securing five additional seats in each, along with two seats in Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa. Meanwhile, Democrats are expected to gain seats through redistricting in states like New Jersey, Illinois, Oregon, and New Mexico. According to Li, parties also approach redistricting with different philosophies: Republicans tend to draw districts for broader gains, while Democrats prioritize creating safer districts with reliable margins.
“When you gerrymander, you have to choose between safe districts and gaining more districts,” Li said. “Democrats are working to ensure their districts are secure.”
Since 2022, five states have updated their maps. Courts ordered Alabama and Louisiana to include a new majority-Black district, finding prior maps violated the Voting Rights Act. Georgia also updated its map to add a new majority-Black district but diluted a different Democratic-leaning district. North Carolina’s new Republican-controlled Supreme Court reversed its prior ban on partisan gerrymandering, giving Republicans a lead in 10 out of the state’s 14 districts. New York’s new maps, however, are balanced, with no significant advantage to either party. Cervas noted that while these changes slightly favor Republicans, they do not significantly alter the partisan edge created by the redistricting. Source: Salon
