In historic turn, South Africa’s ANC loses majority

Photograph by Zinyange Auntony, courtesy of AFP via Getty Images. At a polling station in Umlazi on May 29, African National Congress (ANC) polling agents prepare a tent adorned with party paraphernalia for the South Africa general election.

June 02, 2024 Story by: Editor

JOHANNESBURG  — In a landmark election, South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) has lost its longstanding majority, marking a significant shift for the party once spearheaded by Nelson Mandela. The ANC has been the dominant force in South African politics since the nation’s first post-apartheid elections three decades ago.

The ANC anticipated a disappointing result, as polls had suggested a challenging outcome before Wednesday’s election. However, the final results were more severe than expected, with the ANC securing just 40 percent of the vote, a sharp decline from 57% in 2019.

Tessa Dooms, director at Rivonia Circle, a South African think tank, remarked on the election’s historic nature, highlighting its impact on the ANC’s thirty-year political stronghold. “The election in South Africa is an important watershed moment that fundamentally changes politics,” she noted.

According to the South African constitution, the party with the largest vote has two weeks from the certification of results to form a new government. The ANC now faces the challenge of forming a coalition government with one or more opposition parties to maintain its grip on power.

The ANC’s diminishing support reflects the harsh realities for millions of South Africans. The nation remains one of the most unequal globally, with a 32% unemployment rate and high crime levels. Frustration over water and electricity shortages, alongside rampant corruption, has fueled growing discontent with the ANC government.

While significant progress was made following liberation from apartheid, many of the inequalities inherited from that era persist and have worsened over the past decade. The ANC’s vote share has steadily declined in each election since 2004, further exacerbated by a generational divide, with younger voters, the “born frees,” showing less allegiance to the ANC.

“On the one hand, we overcame apartheid as a structural force,” Dooms said, “On the other hand, we have not actually changed many of the dynamics. We inherited inequality of one form, and we have doubled down on inequality in South Africa in another form, and it has hurt us.”

In this election, the ANC’s gradual decline over the past 20 years became more pronounced, Dooms added. “The ANC has in some ways imploded in the form of its former president, Jacob Zuma. The rise of the MK is certainly the biggest story of this election.”

Zuma’s Rise and Fall

Jacob Zuma, the controversial former ANC leader, has seen a resurgence through his new party, the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK). Named after the ANC’s former military wing, MK was registered only six months ago but has quickly exceeded expectations. Many former ANC supporters, particularly poorer and ethnically Zulu South Africans, have followed Zuma to MK, which is now the third-largest party with nearly 15% of the vote.

Zuma’s dramatic resurgence comes despite a conviction barring him from parliament. As MK leader, he could play a pivotal role in coalition negotiations and potentially use his influence to avoid further convictions.

Zuma resigned from the presidency in 2018 and was convicted in 2021 for failing to appear at a corruption trial. He faces another corruption trial next year related to a 1999 arms deal. Zuma has accused his successor, President Cyril Ramaphosa, of orchestrating his legal troubles. Now, Zuma has delivered a significant defeat to Ramaphosa, who may face calls to resign from within his party.

Zuma’s daughter and MK member, Duduzile Sambudla, told NPR, “The MK is not willing to go into a coalition with the ANC of Ramaphosa,” suggesting a coalition might be possible without Ramaphosa.

The MK’s success is particularly notable in KwaZulu Natal (KZN), South Africa’s second-most populous province, where it won nearly 46% of the vote, compared to the ANC’s 18%.

Shifting Political Landscape

In 1994, Nelson Mandela cast his first vote at Ohlange High School in Durban, KZN. Thirty years later, voters at the same polling station expressed frustration with the current state of the country and a desire for change.

Nqobile Khumalo, 24, voting for the first time, said, “We just really hope that there will be change.” Tracy Bongiwe Zondo, 39, who previously supported the ANC, stated, “Before now I was voting for the ANC but now I’m voting for MK because I need a change in our community.”

Ramaphosa’s future is uncertain. As the first ANC president to lose the party’s majority and overseeing a steep 17% decline in vote share, his leadership is under scrutiny. The ANC’s head of elections, Nomvula Mokonyane, told NPR that Ramaphosa would not resign. “Nobody’s going to resign,” she said. However, Ramaphosa faces significant challenges in maintaining his position for the remainder of his term.

New Era of Coalition Government

Professor David Everett of Wits School of Governance views the need for the ANC to form a coalition as a positive development for South Africa. “I think the ANC suddenly having to be accountable rather than having majority after majority will be an exceptionally good thing for South Africa,” he said.

While coalition governments are common at the local level in South Africa, they are unprecedented at the federal level. The composition of an ANC-led coalition government is now a critical question.

The ANC could partner with the Democratic Alliance (DA), a center-right party led predominantly by the white minority, which garnered nearly 22% of the vote. “There are two factions in the ANC. The one led by President Ramaphosa is much more concerned with the state of the economy and quite likely to look to the Democratic Alliance,” Everett said. However, this move could alienate many within the ANC’s other faction.

Alternatively, the ANC could ally with MK, giving Zuma governmental influence, or with the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema, who secured 9% of the vote. A coalition with either or both parties could prove volatile due to the divisions that led to their breakaway from the ANC.

The ANC’s transition from a liberation movement to a dominant political force is facing a critical test as it grapples with internal divisions and the country’s pressing issues. South African politics may be entering a new era, moving away from one-party dominance. Under the proportional representation system, more parties and independent candidates are emerging, offering alternatives the ANC must now contend with.