Dec 29, 2024 Story by: Editor
Over the past 15 years, the racial turnout gap in the U.S. has widened significantly. This disparity can largely be linked to restrictive state voting laws, such as Georgia’s Senate Bill 202, which emerged after the Supreme Court’s 2013 ruling in Shelby County v. Holder weakened protections against racially discriminatory voting rules. Beyond legal constraints, systemic issues like underrepresentation in democratic processes and barriers in campaign finance disproportionately affect communities of color, leading to political disengagement.
Structural Barriers and Their Effects
Features of the democratic system exacerbate this disengagement. Campaign finance laws hinder low-income individuals from running for office, while mechanisms like the Electoral College devalue many Americans’ votes. Additionally, gerrymandering entrenches political power in a way that marginalizes certain communities. While economic concerns, such as inflation, also kept some voters from the polls this year, the structural challenges remain significant contributors to the racial turnout gap.
Georgia: A Case Study of Widening Gaps
Georgia, an important swing state, provides early insights into voting trends. Preliminary data reveal that the turnout gap between white and Black voters in the state grew by 3 percentage points between 2020 and 2024. While white voter turnout increased, Black turnout declined by 0.6 percentage points, failing to keep pace with population growth. The number of ballots cast by Black voters rose from 1.44 million in 2020 to 1.52 million in 2024, but this increase fell short of matching the surge in white voter participation. Had Black voter turnout matched that of white voters, approximately 400,000 more ballots would have been cast—far surpassing President-elect Trump’s winning margin of about 115,000 votes.
Disparities Among Demographics
The data shows troubling trends, particularly among younger Black men. Only 71% of Black men under 50 who voted in 2020 cast a ballot in 2024, compared to 81% of white men in the same demographic. This drop-off rate among younger Black men is significantly higher than in previous election cycles. While turnout for younger Black women also declined slightly, the overall disparity was less pronounced.
In contrast, turnout among white men and women across all age categories increased. The number of new voters under 50 also showed a stark difference, with a 27% decline among younger Black men compared to a 17% decline among younger white men.
Implications for Democracy
These patterns underscore systemic issues in political participation. The reasons behind declining turnout—whether restrictive voting laws like Georgia’s S.B. 202, feelings of governmental neglect, or other factors—must be thoroughly examined.
When entire groups are disengaged from the electoral process, it reflects broader challenges within the political environment rather than individual apathy. The growing racial turnout gap in Georgia, and potentially nationwide, highlights an urgent need to address these disparities to achieve a truly multiracial democracy.
Methodology
Turnout rates were calculated using Census Bureau data, specifically the five-year citizen voting-age population (CVAP) estimates. Projections for 2024 relied on compound annual growth rates from prior years. To analyze turnout among subgroups, researchers used data from the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), decomposing the CVAP data by age, gender, and race at the state level.
This detailed approach ensures accurate insights, though these findings remain preliminary. Understanding the full impact of the 2024 election will require additional analysis once national voter files and post-election surveys become available next summer. Source: Brennan Center
