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Redistricting cases that could impact the 2026 midterms

Black Politics Now by Black Politics Now
February 13, 2025
in Voting Rights
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Dec 20, 2024 Story by: Editor

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Though the 2024 election has concluded, many ongoing redistricting cases could still significantly influence voting rights across various states. While the 2026 midterm election may seem distant, these cases — especially those involving congressional districts — could determine whether voters are adequately represented and potentially alter the election outcomes.

The margin between Democrats and Republicans in the House is razor-thin, meaning that even a single redrawn district in 2026 could have a substantial impact on the election results.

Arkansas
Christian Ministerial Alliance v. Thurston
Background
In 2020, Arkansas State Senator Joyce Elliott (D) came close to winning in the state’s 2nd Congressional District, marking the closest a Black congressional candidate in Arkansas had come to victory since at least 2000. However, following the 2020 census results, the state re-drew its map in 2021, splitting the majority-Black district. A pro-voting rights group and several Black voters sued, claiming the new map was a racial gerrymander that “cracks” the politically significant Black community in Pulaski County by dividing it into three of the state’s four other districts.

The plaintiffs not only sought to block the current map but also pushed for Arkansas to be placed under preclearance, as outlined in Section 3 of the Voting Rights Act, which would require the state to submit future redistricting plans for court or U.S. Attorney General review.

What’s Next
A federal district court has scheduled a bench trial to begin on March 24, 2025.

Alabama
Allen v. Milligan
Background
Democrat Shomari Figures was elected to represent Alabamans in a newly established majority-Black district, a result of the ongoing legal battles in Allen v. Milligan. However, with Figures up for re-election in 2026, the case’s outcome could impact his chances to retain his seat. In June 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed a lower court’s decision to block Alabama’s previously gerrymandered congressional map, and a court-appointed special master drew new districts, creating two majority-Black districts instead of one.

What’s Next
A federal trial is set to begin on February 10, 2025, to determine whether Alabama will maintain two majority-Black congressional districts in future elections, including the 2026 midterms.

Florida
Black Voters Matter Capacity Building Institute v. Byrd
Background
In the 2024 election, Floridians voted under a congressional map that voting rights advocates argued diminished the power of Black voters. This issue may change for the 2026 election depending on the outcome of Black Voters Matter Capacity Building Institute v. Byrd. In 2022, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) pushed through a congressional map that dismantled the historically Black 5th Congressional District, covering Jacksonville and Tallahassee. A trial court struck down the map in September 2023, but a conservative state appeals court reversed the decision, leaving the map in place for the 2024 election. The plaintiffs appealed to the Florida Supreme Court, which heard the case in September.

What’s Next
The Florida Supreme Court will rule on whether to uphold or strike down the map that was used in the 2024 election.

Georgia
Pendergrass v. Raffensperger
Background
Georgia voters have been challenging the state’s congressional map since 2021, arguing that it dilutes the voting power of people of color. They contend that, based on significant Black population growth in Georgia post-2020 census, the state should have added a majority-Black district in the Atlanta area. A federal district court struck down the map in October 2023, ordering a redrawn map for the 2024 election. The state appealed to the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. In December 2023, the court upheld the new map drawn by the Republican legislature. However, the plaintiffs argued it still lacked fair representation for Black voters, prompting an appeal to the court’s decision.

What’s Next
Two appeals are ongoing, with oral arguments scheduled for January 23, 2025, before the 11th Circuit. No hearing date has been set for the plaintiffs’ appeal.

Louisiana
Callais v. Landry
Background
In January 2024, Louisiana’s legislature enacted a new congressional map after the previous one was struck down by a federal court, which ruled it violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The court mandated a new map with two majority-Black districts. However, non-African American voters who filed the lawsuit in Callais v. Landry argued the new map was a racial gerrymander that violated their constitutional rights under the 14th and 15th Amendments. A federal district court struck down the map in April 2024, but the U.S. Supreme Court temporarily blocked the ruling ahead of the 2024 election.

What’s Next
The U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear the case in 2025, though an oral argument date has not yet been set.

North Carolina
Williams v. Hall
Background
In Williams v. Hall, Black and Latino voters argued that North Carolina’s congressional map, enacted in October 2023, undermines the progress made by voters of color in previous elections. The plaintiffs challenged four congressional districts, claiming the new map dismantled districts where minority voters had an equal opportunity to elect their preferred candidates.

What’s Next
Litigation is ongoing, with one motion currently before the district court.

South Carolina
League of Women Voters of South Carolina v. Alexander
Background
The League of Women Voters of South Carolina filed a lawsuit over the 2022 congressional map, alleging partisan gerrymandering by Republican legislators who manipulated the districts to favor their party. The group has sought a court order for a new map that complies with state law, but the case could still influence the 2026 midterm elections.

What’s Next
Litigation is ongoing, with no hearings currently scheduled.

Texas
League of United Latin American Citizens v. Abbott
Background
In response to redistricting plans drawn using 2020 census data, nine lawsuits were filed challenging Texas’ congressional, legislative, and education board maps, arguing they dilute Latino voting power in violation of the Voting Rights Act. The cases have been consolidated and litigation is ongoing in district court and the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

What’s Next
Litigation continues, with the case still pending trial.

Utah
League of Women Voters of Utah v. Utah State Legislature
Background
In this case, plaintiffs seek a new congressional map for Utah’s 2026 election and the reinstatement of a 2018 ballot initiative for an independent redistricting commission. They argue that the current map, which they claim favors Republicans by splitting non-Republican voters, violates the Utah Constitution.

What’s Next
Litigation is ongoing. Source: Democracy Docket

Tags: 2026 midterm election redistrictingImpact of redistricting on electionsRedistricting cases 2026 midtermsRedistricting legal challenges 2026
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