Dec 27, 2024 Story by: Editor
This Navigator Research report, the fifth in a series from our post-election survey of 5,000 self-reported 2024 general election voters, provides insight into how different racial groups voted in the 2024 election. It also highlights the issues that influenced their choices and compares voting patterns with the 2020 election.
Trump’s Improved Performance Across Racial Demographics
Donald Trump saw increased support from voters across various racial groups, particularly among men of color. Compared to 2020, Trump’s standing improved with white voters (from net +13 to net +16; 40 percent Harris – 56 percent Trump), Hispanic voters (from net +38 to net +11; 53 percent Harris – 42 percent Trump), Asian-American and Pacific Islander voters (from net +31 to net +20; 58 percent Harris – 38 percent Trump), and Black voters (from net +84 to net +67; 81 percent Harris – 14 percent Trump).
The most significant shifts were observed among men, especially men of color. Trump gained a one-point advantage among Hispanic men (49 percent Harris – 50 percent Trump), a remarkable 35-point swing from 2020, when Biden led Hispanic men by 34 points. A similar 35-point shift occurred with Black men, where Harris led by 47 points in 2024 (71 percent Harris – 24 percent Trump), down from Biden’s 82-point lead in 2020. White men also showed a shift towards Trump, with his margin increasing by 5 points (net +23; 37 percent Harris – 60 percent Trump) compared to 2020, when his margin was 18 points (40 percent Harris – 58 percent Trump).
Consistent Voting Patterns Among Women
Both Black women and white women maintained consistent voting patterns. Black women continued to support Harris by an 83-point margin (90 percent Harris – 7 percent Trump), almost unchanged from Biden’s 85-point margin in 2020. White women, on the other hand, voted for Trump by a 10-point margin (43 percent Harris – 53 percent Trump), similar to his 8-point lead in 2020.
However, Hispanic women saw the most significant decline in Democratic support. In 2020, Biden won Hispanic women by 40 points (69 percent Biden – 29 percent Trump), but in 2024, Harris’s lead was reduced to 21 points (57 percent Harris – 36 percent Trump). Among younger Hispanic voters, Harris won by just 5 points (50 percent Harris – 45 percent Trump), a sharp drop from Biden’s 50-point margin in 2020.
Economic Pessimism Among White and Hispanic Voters
A large portion of the electorate expressed discontent with the country’s direction and economic conditions. Overall, 63 percent of voters believed the country was headed in the wrong direction, including 66 percent of white voters and 59 percent of Hispanic voters. Both groups were overwhelmingly negative about the state of the economy: 72 percent of white voters and 70 percent of Hispanic voters held a pessimistic view. In contrast, Black voters were less negative, with 57 percent disapproving of the economy, but 62 percent approved of Biden’s economic handling, in contrast to white and Hispanic voters, who disapproved by wide margins.
Mixed Approval of Trump’s Presidency
Trump’s retrospective approval varied across racial groups: 59 percent of white voters, 48 percent of Hispanic voters, 35 percent of Asian-American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters, and 25 percent of Black voters expressed approval of his presidency.
Inflation and the Cost of Living as Top Issues
Inflation and the cost of living emerged as the most important issue for voters. Among white voters, 46 percent listed it as a top issue, followed by 42 percent of Hispanic and AAPI voters, and 31 percent of Black voters. Immigration and the border ranked second, with 31 percent of voters indicating it as a top issue, particularly among white voters (35 percent) and Hispanic voters (27 percent). Abortion was another significant issue, particularly for Black voters (26 percent) and Hispanic voters (24 percent).
Harris’s Edge on Most Issues, Trump’s Economic Advantage
Harris led in voter trust on several key issues, including abortion (net +18; 49 percent trust Harris – 31 percent trust Trump), healthcare affordability (net +14; 48 percent trust Harris – 34 percent trust Trump), and Social Security and Medicare (net +5; 46 percent trust Harris – 41 percent trust Trump). On economic matters, however, Trump had the advantage on issues like inflation (net +13; 52 percent trust Trump – 39 percent trust Harris), the national economy (net +12; 52 percent trust Trump – 40 percent trust Harris), and reducing costs for regular people (net +1; 47 percent trust Trump – 46 percent trust Harris). White voters were particularly inclined to trust Trump on these economic issues, with double-digit margins in favor of Trump on inflation (net +26), the national economy (net +25), and reducing costs (net +13). Hispanic men also preferred Trump on inflation (net +11) and the economy (net +10), though they slightly favored Harris when it came to reducing costs (+2).
Trump’s greatest trust advantage was in handling immigration and border security, with white voters trusting him by 31 points, AAPI voters by 9 points, and Hispanic voters by 4 points.
Youth Voters of Color and Economic Pessimism
Young men of color showed a notable shift away from their 2020 support for the Democratic candidate, driven by their economic pessimism and concerns about inflation. Black and Hispanic men between the ages of 18-44 expressed negative views about the economy, with Black men reporting a net -11 and Hispanic men a net -29. Both groups prioritized inflation and the economy when deciding who to vote for, with young Black men focusing on jobs and the economy (39 percent) and inflation (27 percent), and young Hispanic men focusing on inflation (39 percent) and jobs and the economy (37 percent). Both groups also gave retrospective approval to Trump’s presidency (net +2 for Black men and net +16 for Hispanic men). This pessimism and approval of Trump led to a significantly lower vote share for Harris among these groups compared to Biden’s performance in 2020. Young Hispanic men split their vote evenly between Harris and Trump (49 percent Harris – 49 percent Trump), while young Black men supported Harris by just 34 points (64 percent Harris – 30 percent Trump), a sharp drop from Biden’s 73-point lead in 2020 (86 percent Biden – 13 percent Trump). Source: Navigator Research
