Political analysts are delving into the factors behind Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 election. A closer look reveals Trump’s stronger-than-expected performance among several key demographic groups.
A recent poll, utilizing artificial intelligence, sheds light on why Black, Latino, young, and independent voters supported Trump in greater numbers compared to 2020. These shifts, according to CloudResearch’s Chief Research Officer Leib Litman, explain why pre-election polls underestimate Trump’s support for the third consecutive election cycle.
While the polls accurately predicted Vice President Kamala Harris’ national support within 0.5%, they underestimated Trump’s national support by 3.8%, according to CloudResearch’s analysis. In the seven battleground states, the Trump polling error ranged from 2.1% to 3.7%.
In 2024, Trump saw an 8-point increase among voters aged 18 to 29, securing 46% compared to 36% in 2020. Among independent voters, he gained 45%, up from 41%; among Hispanic voters, 42%, up from 35%; and among Black voters, 16%, doubling his 2020 figure of 8%, based on CloudResearch’s review of data from AP VoteCast and Reuters.
