Oct 12, 2024 Story by: Editor
Support for Vice President Kamala Harris among likely Black voters has grown since President Biden exited the race, while former President Donald Trump has also seen a rise in support from this key voting group, according to a recent survey.
A poll released by The New York Times and Siena College on Saturday revealed that nearly 80 percent of likely Black voters would choose Harris over Trump if the presidential election were held today. Specifically, Harris secured 78 percent support, an increase from Biden’s 74 percent prior to his withdrawal. In comparison, Biden had garnered backing from 90 percent of Black voters during the 2020 election.
The survey also showed that 15 percent of likely Black voters would now opt for Trump, reflecting a 6-point increase from four years ago. Around 7 percent of respondents either were unsure or declined to answer.
In terms of voter turnout, 56 percent of likely Black voters indicated that they were “almost certain” to cast their vote, while 31 percent said they were “very likely,” and 7 percent noted they were “somewhat likely.” Only 1 percent mentioned they were “not very likely” to vote, and 4 percent said they were “not at all likely.”
Harris’s candidacy appears to have energized younger Black voters. A September poll conducted by The Washington Post and Ipsos found that 69 percent of Black Americans were “absolutely certain to vote” in November, an increase from 62 percent in April when Biden was still in the race.
Black voters in critical battleground states also seem to favor Harris over Trump. According to a survey from the Howard Initiative on Public Opinion, 78 percent of registered Black voters across key states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would back Harris if the election were held today.
Despite Harris’s strong showing among Black voters, another recent Times/Siena poll focusing on likely male voters revealed that Trump holds a significant lead nationally, with 51 percent support compared to Harris’s 40 percent. Democratic strategists have voiced concerns that Harris needs to boost her support among Black and Latino men to defeat Trump, who has seen growing support from both demographic groups.
Former President Barack Obama recently appealed to Black male voters on behalf of Harris during a rally in Pennsylvania. However, his remarks faced some criticism. “We have not yet seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all corners of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running,” Obama stated, referencing “reports I’m getting from campaigns and communities.”
The latest Times/Siena poll was conducted between September 29 and October 6, surveying 589 Black voters, which included 548 individuals who identify as Black alone and 41 who identify as Black in combination with another race or ethnicity. The poll has a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points. Source: The Hill
