March 24, 2025 Story by: Editor
Voters in Texas’s 18th Congressional District are facing a unique challenge: their representatives keep passing away. Last July, longtime lawmaker Sheila Jackson Lee died, and this month, former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner also passed away.
Under normal circumstances, residents of the 18th District would have continuous representation in Congress. However, another issue complicates the situation—the district is a majority-minority, heavily Democratic stronghold, one of the bluest in Texas. Meanwhile, Republicans are reluctant to see another Democratic vote in the House.
As a result, following these two recent deaths, it appears unlikely that the district will have a representative in Washington until next year.
Abbott’s Decision Could Benefit GOP Majority
Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott holds the power to determine the timing of the special election to replace Turner—a decision that could help House Speaker Mike Johnson maintain his historically narrow five-seat GOP majority.
Abbott has the option to schedule the election for May 3, later this year, or November 4. Choosing the November date would delay the election by six months, further prolonging the district’s lack of representation. While Abbott has not yet indicated his decision, some political analysts believe he may act in favor of Johnson.
“I think we’re in a situation where hardball, partisan politics is going to prevail,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. “With every vote in the House being precious, Abbott has the ability to provide Speaker Mike Johnson with one more degree of freedom in terms of passing hard votes between now and the end of the year.”
Timing Is Crucial
Turner passed away on March 5, just hours after attending President Donald Trump’s address to Congress and only weeks after taking office. His death at age 70 came just eight months after Jackson Lee’s passing. The late congresswoman was known as a vocal progressive, advocating for causes such as reparations and the Black Lives Matter movement.
Under Texas law, Abbott has significant flexibility in setting the special election date. He can align it with one of two pre-existing statewide election dates—May 3 or November 4—or declare an emergency and select another date in between. (Abbott’s office did not respond to a request for comment.)
If Abbott opts for a May 3 election, Texas law mandates that he must announce the decision at least 36 days in advance, giving him until the end of next week to issue a proclamation.
However, Jones cautioned against expecting a swift decision.
“There’s nothing anyone can do after the end of next week to force the governor’s hand,” he said. “There will be some backlash, but it will be backlash among liberal Democrats in Houston. That is not exactly the governor’s constituency.”
In contrast, Democratic Governors Kathy Hochul of New York and Katie Hobbs of Arizona have far less discretion under their states’ laws regarding special elections. Both are preparing for upcoming elections to replace Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who passed away last week, and Rep. Elise Stefanik (D-N.Y.), who is awaiting confirmation as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Representation Delays and Political Implications
If the election to replace Turner is set for November 4, Texas law could necessitate a December runoff, leaving the winner with very little time to legislate this year.
Among the candidates currently in the race are Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards, both Democrats.
Whoever wins will continue a longstanding trend of Black lawmakers representing this diverse district. While Latinos make up the largest demographic group, Black voters constitute the largest voting bloc.
Jones noted that the district’s overwhelmingly Democratic electorate means the eventual representative will likely be a strong opponent of Republican policies.
“This is an election that will be decided by hardcore Democratic primary voters,” he said, “so a robust opposition to Donald Trump is something that all of the candidates will be promoting.”
Source: The Intercept
