Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) introduces former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in North Charleston, S.C., on February 14. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
June 26, 2024 Story by: Editor
For over fifty years, Black voters have been a cornerstone of the Democratic Party’s coalition. But could former President Donald Trump make notable gains among this group in the upcoming election? Some national polls suggest this possibility, but should they be trusted? Black voters are once again set to play a pivotal role in the presidential race, with President Biden needing their strong support to secure a second term. Maintaining his margin over Trump among Black voters, as seen in past elections, is crucial. However, he also faces the challenge of ensuring high voter turnout amid declining participation rates.
Trump has focused on increasing his support among Black voters, particularly targeting Black men and younger Black men, citing inflation and immigration as potential leverage points. In the 2020 election, exit polls estimated that Trump received 12% of the Black vote, while the Pew Research Center estimated it at 8%. Despite these figures, no significant rise in Republican support from Black Americans has been observed in presidential and midterm elections since 2016.
Recent polls, however, such as those from Quinnipiac, Economist-YouGov, New York Times/Siena, and Marquette University Law School, show Trump with at least 20% support among Black adults. A new Fox News survey even suggests he has 26% support. If these numbers hold true, Trump would achieve the highest share of the Black vote for any Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon in 1960.
Before the civil rights movement, Republican presidential candidates regularly secured a substantial minority of the Black vote. However, since the 1960s, their share has significantly declined, reaching a low point during Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012, when it dropped to about 5%.
Pollsters consider the Obama elections unique due to his historic appeal as the first Black president. They suggest Trump might again secure around 11-13% of the Black vote but remain skeptical of current polls indicating 20% or higher support. Christopher Towler, a political scientist at California State University at Sacramento, expressed doubt about a sudden “magical shift” toward Trump compared to 2016 and 2020. He pointed out that the sample sizes for Black voters in these polls are often small, leading to significant margins of error. Large-scale surveys of Black Americans, which are more reliable, are relatively rare.
Cornell Belcher, a pollster for Obama, dismissed the notion that Trump could significantly increase his share of the Black vote, calling it “absurd.” He cited Trump’s history of racist comments and positions contrary to the concerns of Black Americans as major obstacles. Belcher emphasized that Trump’s record does not align with the interests of Black voters, making significant gains unlikely.
Political scientist Alan Abramowitz of Emory University also questioned the recent polls, suggesting that historical trends indicate Trump’s support among Black voters will likely decline by November. He acknowledged the potential for short-term swings but remained skeptical of lasting increases in support.
These polls have generated news stories about a lack of enthusiasm for Biden among Black voters, particularly younger ones. Biden’s approval rating among Black Americans has declined, with Pew Center finding 60% approval in January 2022, dropping to 48% by January of this year. However, Biden’s favorable ratings among Black adults have only slightly decreased, from 65% positive in July 2022 to 61% positive by February. In contrast, Trump’s advisers believe gains among Black voters are achievable, pointing to issues like inflation and immigration. They recognize the challenge posed by the lack of Black political surrogates but highlight figures like Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) as potential advocates.
Biden’s campaign acknowledges the need to boost his standing among Black voters, emphasizing achievements such as record-low Black unemployment and historic funding for historically Black colleges and universities. Jasmine Harris, director of Black media for the Biden-Harris campaign, expressed confidence that Black voters will support Biden over Trump, who has “consistently worked to demean and degrade Black Americans.”
The greater concern for Biden’s allies is the overall level of Black voter turnout. For example, Black turnout in 2022 dropped by 10 percentage points compared to the 2018 midterm election. Towler noted that infrequent Black voters pose a significant challenge for Biden. These voters are disillusioned and may not be motivated to vote, despite their opposition to Trump.
High turnout in Black precincts in key cities like Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee is crucial for Biden’s success in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Turnout in these areas has declined in recent elections, raising concerns for Democratic strategists. The loss of Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, for instance, could be devastating for Biden’s campaign.
Despite skepticism about the reliability of current polling, the possibility of Trump increasing his share of the Black vote cannot be entirely dismissed. Low Black voter turnout or a shift toward third-party candidates could also impact the election. Biden’s team remains focused on mobilizing Black voters, recognizing their critical role in the upcoming election. Source: The Washington Post acknowledges the need to boost his standing among Black voters, emphasizing achievements such as record-low Black unemployment and historic funding for historically Black colleges and universities. Jasmine Harris, director of Black media for the Biden-Harris campaign, expressed confidence that Black voters will support Biden over Trump, who has “consistently worked to demean and degrade Black Americans.”
The greater concern for Biden’s allies is the overall level of Black voter turnout. For example, Black turnout in 2022 dropped by 10 percentage points compared to the 2018 midterm election. Towler noted that infrequent Black voters pose a significant challenge for Biden. These voters are disillusioned and may not be motivated to vote, despite their opposition to Trump.
High turnout in Black precincts in key cities like Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee is crucial for Biden’s success in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Turnout in these areas has declined in recent elections, raising concerns for Democratic strategists. The loss of Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, for instance, could be devastating for Biden’s campaign.
Despite skepticism about the reliability of current polling, the possibility of Trump increasing his share of the Black vote cannot be entirely dismissed. Low Black voter turnout or a shift toward third-party candidates could also impact the election. Biden’s team remains focused on mobilizing Black voters, recognizing their critical role in the upcoming election. Source: The Washington Post
